Prediction of the South China Sea Dipole Using SSA-MEM     

Qiong Xia  Enbo Wei 《大气与海洋》2018,56(4):240-253

ABSTRACT

A dipole structure appears in the sea surface height off the central coast of Vietnam during boreal summer in the South China Sea. This dipole, which possesses a chlorophyll signature associated with higher phytoplankton concentrations arising from nutrient upwelling, is important for the productivity of local fisheries. Multi-satellite sea level anomalies are used to investigate the life cycle of the dipole structure. By applying empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, the third EOF mode (EOF 3) is found to represent the major variations of the dipole structure. By removing the temporal noise of EOF 3, a South China Sea dipole index is defined. This index captures the life cycle of the dipole including its generation, mature strength, and final termination. Both one-dimensional and two-dimensional forecasts are generated using a statistical forecasting method that combines singular-spectrum analysis and the maximum entropy method. The appearance of the dipole structure can be predicted with an accuracy of 78% at one-month lead times and an accuracy of 61% at one-year lead times.  相似文献   

招平断裂带南段南墅金矿地质特征及成矿远景          下载免费PDF全文

王青  程东江  曹瑞  王汝杰  王帅  苏旭亮 《山东国土资源》2018,34(7)

南墅金矿床位于胶西北著名金矿成矿带——招平断裂带的南段,南北与下庄、山后金矿相邻,NW向断裂与招平断裂带在矿区北部交会,成矿条件十分优越。近年来青岛地质工程勘察院在该区勘查取得了新进展,在矿床深部新发现一个产状稳定金矿体,最大埋深约700m,探获金矿资源量规模达到中型,沿走向、倾向均未封闭,进一步勘查资源潜力较大。该文详细叙述了矿床地质特征,总结了矿体产出及矿化富集规律,分析了南墅金矿的成矿远景,提出了该区及招平断裂带南段金矿勘查的找矿建议。  相似文献   

一种基于熵权法的小波去噪复合评价指标   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

容静  刘立龙  康昊华  李松青  周吕 《大地测量与地球动力学》2018,38(7):689-694

传统的评价指标在真值未知的情况下不能满足小波去噪质量评价的要求。为此，借助变化率特征重新构建均方根误差变化量和平滑度变化量两个指标，利用熵权法定权将归一化后的两个指标线性组合，所得到的新指标即为复合评价指标。该方法借助指标的变化率随分解层数的增加表现出明显的收敛特性来确定去噪最优分解层数。实验表明，该方法能够在真值未知的情况下准确地指导小波分解，确定去噪最优分解层数，从而达到最优去噪效果。  相似文献   

徐州市水土流失时空变化研究     

陈报章  渠俊峰  葛梦玉  沈艳文  王安妮  王国斌 《地球信息科学学报》2018,20(11):1622-1630

本文以3S技术为支撑,在修正水土流失方程（RUSLE）的基础上,针对徐州黄泛平原-丘陵地带的特殊地形地貌、对2000年以来徐州市水土流失时空变化特征进行了分析。结果表明：2000-2014年徐州市土壤侵蚀等级以微度为主,微度侵蚀面积占总侵蚀面积多年平均达到76.34%;中度侵蚀次之,所占比例在10%~17%间;剧烈侵蚀所占比例最少。轻度及以上土壤侵蚀等级主要发生在中部微山湖下游、京杭大运河一带的丘陵岗地地区、主城区与故黄河北岸的黄泛平原地区,以及丰县、新沂、邳州的局部区域;土壤侵蚀存在一定程度年际变化特征,睢宁、丰县、邳州的部分地区侵蚀面积年际变化较为明显,土壤侵蚀总面积整体上呈现下降趋势。  相似文献   

Photometric Follow-up Transit (Primary Eclipse) Observations of WASP-43 b and TrES-3b and A Study on Their Transit Timing Variations     

Sun Zhao  Ji Jiang-hui  Dong Yao 《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2018,42(1):101-128

Two photometric follow-up transit (primary eclipse) observations on WASP-43 b and four observations on TrES-3 b are performed using the Xuyi Near-Earth Object Survey Telescope. After differential photometry and light curve analysis, the physical parameters of the two systems are obtained and are in good match with the literature. Combining with transit data from a lot of literature, the residuals (O ? C) of transit observations of both systems are fitted with the linear and quadratic functions. With the linear fitting, the periods and transit timing variations (TTVs) of the planets are obtained, and no obvious periodic TTV signal is found in both systems after an analysis. The maximum mass of a perturbing planet located at the 1:2 mean motion resonance (MMR) for WASP-43 b and TrES-3 b is estimated to be 1.826 and 1.504 Earth mass, respectively. By quadratic fitting, it is confirmed that WASP-43 b may have a long-term TTV which means an orbital decay. The decay rate is shown to be P? = (?0.005248 ± 0.001714) s·yr^?1, and compared with the previous results. Based on this, the lower limit of the stellar tidal quality parameter of WASP-43 is calculated to be ${Q^{\prime }}_{*}\ge 1.5\times {10}^5$, and the remaining lifetimes of the planets are presented for the different ${Q^{\prime }}_{*}$ values of the two systems, correspondingly.  相似文献   

鲁西潘店地区矽卡岩型铁矿成矿规律初探   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

郝兴中  刘伟  臧凯  张学松 《山东国土资源》2018,34(7)

近年来,在鲁中隆起区西北部潘店地区的铁矿勘查工作取得了重大进展。该区发育有明显的航磁异常及航空重力异常,且具有"重磁同源性"特征;通过对航磁异常的分析,可分为李屯、潘店、大张和薛官屯4个次级磁异常。勘查工作表明,区内巨厚新生界覆盖层下发育有矽卡岩型铁矿床,总体表现为"地层、岩体和构造"联合控矿的特征,即铁矿体受控于奥陶纪马家沟群碳酸盐地层、中生代燕山晚期闪长岩体、以及地层与岩体接触处形成的各种类型(构造)接触带。区内铁矿体赋存位置多样,主要为接触带赋存式、断裂充填式、层间充填式、裂隙贯入式、捕虏体构造式等;其成矿时代为早白垩世(130~131Ma),与济南、莱芜、金岭地区矽卡岩型铁矿形成时代基本一致;铁矿物质主要来源于中—基性侵入岩体。在整体表现为具有(剩余)重力异常高值处、(化极)磁异常明显部位,以及高—低电阻率转换带的地段进行铁矿勘查工作较为有利。  相似文献   

室内用户语义位置预测研究     

王培晓  王海波  傅梦颖  吴升 《地球信息科学学报》2018,20(12):1689-1698

位置预测技术可以提前预知用户下一时刻的位置,在基于位置的服务（Location-based Service,LBS）领域中发挥着极其重要的作用。现有的位置预测技术大多仅使用用户的地理轨迹,仅使用地理轨迹挖掘出来的用户移动模式易受地理特性的限制缺乏深层次的语义信息。本文基于某商场群体用户的室内轨迹数据和语义信息预测用户下一个时刻语义位置。语义位置预测包括停留区域识别、停留区域语义匹配、语义位置建模。在停留区域识别阶段,为减少室内停留时间不固定对停留区域识别的影响,本研究提出了一种新型的时空凝聚层次聚类算法（Spatial-Temporal Agglomerative Nesting, ST-AGNES),该算法具有思想简单、超参数少、自动生成聚类个数等优点。在语义匹配阶段,引入了吸引度规则,充分利用停留区域所有轨迹点与室内高密度的商铺名称信息做匹配。最后,采用长短型记忆神经网络模型（Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM）挖掘群体用户的语义位置模式并预测用户未来的语义位置,实验预测正确率达到61.3%。  相似文献   

Seismic electric signals in seismic prone areas          下载免费PDF全文

Nicholas V.Sarlis  Panayiotis A.Varotsos  Efthimios S.Skordas  Seiya Uyeda  Jacques Zlotnicki  Toshiyasu Nagao  Anatoly Rybin  Mary S.Lazaridou-Varotsos  Konstantina A.Papadopoulou 《地震科学（英文版）》2018,31(1):44-51

The Varotsos-Alexopoulos-Nomicos(VAN) method of short-term earthquake prediction was introduced in the 1980s. The VAN method enables estimation of the epicenter, magnitude and occurrence time of an impending earthquake by observing transient changes of the electric field of the Earth termed seismic electric signals(SES). Here, we present a few examples of SES observed in various earthquake prone areas worldwide.  相似文献   

Piecewise prediction model for watershed‐scale erosion and sediment yield of individual rainfall events on the Loess Plateau,China          下载免费PDF全文

Yu Guo‐Qiang  Zhang Mao‐Sheng  Li Zhan‐Bin  Li Peng  Zhang Xia  Cheng Sheng‐Dong 《水文研究》2014,28(21):5322-5336

Establishing a universal watershed‐scale erosion and sediment yield prediction model represents a frontier field in erosion and soil/water conservation. The research presented here was conducted on the Chabagou watershed, which is located in the first sub‐region of the hill‐gully area of the Loess Plateau, China. A back‐propagation artificial neural model for watershed‐scale erosion and sediment yield was established, with the accuracy of the model, then compared with that of multiple linear regression. The sensitivity degree of various factors to erosion and sediment yield was quantitatively analysed using the default factor test. On the basis of the sensitive factors and the fractal information dimension, the piecewise prediction model for erosion and sediment yield of individual rainfall events was established and further verified. The results revealed the back‐propagation artificial neural network model to perform better than the multiple linear regression model in terms of predicting the erosion modulus, with the former able to effectively characterize dynamic changes in sediment yield under comprehensive factor conditions. The sensitivity of runoff erosion power and runoff depth to the erosion and sediment yield associated with individual rainfall events was found to be related to the complexity of surface topography. The characteristics of such a hydrological response are thus closely related to topography. When the fractal information dimension is greater than the topographic threshold, the accuracy of prediction using runoff erosion power is higher than that of using runoff depth. In contrast, when the fractal information dimension is smaller than the topographic threshold, the accuracy of prediction using runoff depth is higher than that of using runoff erosion power. The developed piecewise prediction model for watershed‐scale erosion and sediment yield of individual rainfall events, which introduces runoff erosion power and runoff depth using the fractal information dimension as a boundary, can be considered feasible and reliable and has a high prediction accuracy. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

老挝帕莱通铁矿床西矿段磁铁矿地球化学特征及其成矿意义     

孙策  彭惠娟  熊富浩  侯林 《矿床地质》2020,39(3):523-546

帕莱通铁矿床是老挝万象—呵叻中新生代盆地中最大规模的铁矿床,分为东、西2个矿段,西矿段为豆状、块状富磁铁矿矿体,东部则主要发育角砾状贫赤铁矿矿体。其中,西矿段主要产于新生代富铁质玄武岩中。文章对西矿段中豆状、块状磁铁矿进行了详细的野外地质调查和显微结构分析,发现块状磁铁矿具有细粒他形结构特征,豆状磁铁矿具有球粒同心圆状结构特征。对较为新鲜的磁铁矿进行电子探针(EPMA)以及激光剥蚀电感耦合等离子质谱(LA-ICP-MS)分析显示:帕莱通铁矿床磁铁矿TiO_2-Al_2O_3-MgO三角图落入岩浆岩区域;微量元素富集V、Ti、Cr、Co、Ni及Ga等元素,亏损Sr、Ba及Mg等不相容元素;w(Co)和w(Ni)较高,且较高的Ni/Co比值可以反映成因与深源物质;w(Ti)较高且Ni/Cr比值≤1,在Ti-Ni/Cr图中落入了热液型磁铁矿的范围;Ga-Sn图解表明磁铁矿属于斑岩型热液成因;(Ca+Al+Mn)-(Ti+V)或Ni/(Cr+Mn)-(Ti+V)成因判别图显示该矿床兼具Kiruna型和斑岩型矿床的特征;w(V)表明磁铁矿在较低氧化环境中形成;(Al+Mn)-(Ti+V)形成温度判别图表明磁铁矿形成温度处于300～500℃范围内。文章认为帕莱通铁矿床成矿物质主要源于岩浆演化作用形成的富铁流体,后期由于岩浆热液流体的交代作用,使得磁铁矿具有了热液成因的特征。岩浆型矿床类型在老挝及邻区分布较为广泛,研究帕莱通铁矿的成因,对于总结区域成矿规律,指导同类型矿床找矿预测具有重要意义。  相似文献